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Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.

That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."

Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.

Absence of Serious Debate

Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.

Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage conversation.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.

"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed here and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."

Request for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."