🔗 Share this article

Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare

The succession of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Significant resources is devoted on containing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "resolution".

Nighttime Reality

As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capacity enabled by up-to-date information. From observation points, military aircraft that had been dispatched to engage hostile guided weapons roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: multiple launches fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by partner states. Every firing shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly becomes grim resignation: perhaps the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from ruin and another blackout.

Continuous Dangers

Not long after, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its target.

Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: multiple fatalities, devastation and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a need that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to replace in the immediate future.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The detailed framework from Washington provoked deep reactions, controversy and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.

Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, continue.

Strategic Calculations

It is tempting to accuse certain parties of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership functions according to a premise well known to international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration presumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the coming year.

Divergent Views

Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the result.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing civilians and areas but preventing a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its benefit.

Current Realities

Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.

These opposing factors are driving the talks.

Assessment and Future

It took a only one week to terminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.

While new initiatives based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate specific hesitation to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.